The last Maariv poll before the vote, published on 23 October, gave the opposition 54 seats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition 48. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar led on 21 seats, ahead of Likud on 19 and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad on 15.
Neither bloc reaches a 61-seat majority. Arab parties would take about 14 seats, the poll suggested. The share of Arab party supporters certain to vote rose from 74 per cent on 8 October to 81 per cent, matching the national average of the sample.
In 2022, Arab turnout was 53.2 per cent against 70.6 per cent nationally. Pollsters projected 62 to 68 per cent this time, and analysts said Arab representation could reach 16 seats if turnout passed 70 per cent. President Herzog said a US endorsement would not affect whom he asks to form a government.
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Barq summarises the reporting above in its own words. Figures are given as the named source gives them.